Future Nostalgia. European Sentiment Compass 2026

Europeans want a stronger, more united and independent Europe, but they are doubtful that it will materialise. That is the central finding of the 2026 European Sentiment Compass published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) and the European Cultural Foundation (ECF).

The 2026 Compass – titled Future nostalgia: Europe’s unfinished song – is based on 5,834 interviews conducted in six countries (France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and the UK) and qualitative research on public and political debates in 15 European countries.

The researchers also invited people to talk – in their own words – about what Europe means to them, how it is doing and what they expect it to look like in twenty years. The results reveal what they call Europe’s ‘imagination gap’.

Europeans understand that America is unpredictable, that Russia poses a threat and that Europe needs to become more capable of acting for itself. But recognising that Europe needs to become stronger or more united is not the same as believing that it can.

The Compass identifies four groups – the positive, the negative, the disconnected and the uncertain – based on how people imagine Europe’s future. Most revealing is the large group Pawel Zerka, author of the Compass, calls the “uncertain”, accounting for about a third of the public in the countries covered. Just like the positive, they tend to identify strongly with Europe, and many want greater European unity and political integration. But they struggle to believe that the Europe they want will actually come to pass and, like the negative, tend to think Europe’s future is in danger.

There is reason for hope though. When asked what being European means to them, many of the uncertain invoke shared culture, democracy, and freedom. The work of many of our partners, grantees, and friends is testament to this: Our continent needs more Europeans feeling more European. As André Wilkens, ECF Director, shares: “Unless people can imagine themselves in a common European future, Europe remains an arrangement, not a destiny.” It now is up to Europe’s leaders to tap into people’s longing for the sense that a better future is within reach. But for this, rather than grand visions, Europe needs “practical politics with a horizon”.

Future nostalgia: Europe’s unfinished song is the fifth edition of the European Sentiment Compass – the annual collaborative ECFR-ECF examination of public attitudes towards the challenges and choices confronting Europeans today. It follows on the widely commented publications from previous years, including “Welcome to Barbieland” (2024) and “Trump’s culture war with Europe” (2025).

In an op’ed – published in ao. Dutch daily De Volkskrant – ECF Director André Wilkens and ECFR senior policy fellow Pawel Zerka write, ahead of the State of the European Union by Ursula von der Leyen:

“The uncertain do not necessarily need to be convinced that European cooperation is desirable. They need reasons to believe that it can work. Nor can the pro-European centre communicate its way out of this problem. European leaders should certainly not be naïve about a very real culture war in which domestic and external actors amplify stories of European weakness, hypocrisy and decline. European democracies have good reason to also make social media less vulnerable to manipulation, support independent media and become better at reaching audiences outside traditional pro-European bubbles. 

But the imagination gap cannot simply be fact-checked, sorted out by influencers, or regulated away. The uncertain’s doubts are grounded in things they believe they can see: decisions that take too long, values that are applied inconsistently and a continent that still appears incapable of guaranteeing its own security. The most effective counter-content to a story of European weakness is evidence of European strength, common sense and integrity.

There is also reason for hope. The uncertain are not latent Eurosceptics. When asked what being European means to them, many invoke shared culture, democracy, and freedom. They often envisage a more united and politically integrated Europe in twenty years. And when asked when Europe had made them proud, they usually have vivid memories they are fond of, including those related to EU accession, Europe’s response to covid-19 and war in Ukraine – even Eurovision and Erasmus. 

The ingredients of belief are therefore still there. The political challenge is to connect them to a future that feels attainable. Madam President, don’t just tell Europeans where Europe needs to go. Show them that what Europe does today can actually get it there.”

As in earlier years, the research drew coverage across the continent within days. Amongst others the Compass featured in the following markets: Le Figaro suggests Ursula von der Leyen would do well to consult the study to sharpen her diagnosis ahead of her State of the Union speech. The Guardian quotes lead author Paweł Zerka saying the problem isn’t that Europeans have stopped wanting a stronger Europe, it’s that they “no longer believe it’s achievable.” EUobserver covers the same disillusionment, with Zerka telling the outlet it’s getting hard to discuss the cost of living, climate, or migration “without this becoming a discussion about Europe.” In Hungary, Népszava ran a long account of the findings and reported that Zerka is urging von der Leyen, ahead of her speech, to offer fewer big promises and more real evidence of progress. Euractiv reports on the study’s warning that nostalgic politics thrives by “repackaging versions of yesterday as answers to tomorrow”, ground the far right knows how to walk. And in an El Mundo op-ed, Zerka and ECF director André Wilkens argue that this present moment, with Trump’s America, Putin’s war, and elections coming up in France, Poland, Italy and Spain, matters more than most, and that pro-European leaders must not underestimate the fight for the continent’s future.